Noticias de trading

The Dollar Index took a payroll contraction on August 7, a cooler consumer price reading on August 12 and a flat producer price reading on August 13 without surrendering its range. Friday's data finally did it.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note USD/SGD is consolidating around 1.28 as softer United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) trims Federal Reserve (Fed) hike expectations but fails to trigger fresh US Dollar (USD) selling.

The USD/CHF turns negative on the day, snapping a four-day winning streak, yet it remains above 0.8100, suggesting further upside is possible if buyers reclaim key resistance levels. At the time of writing, the pair trades at a 0.12% loss.

Gold price registers solid gains of nearly 0.90% on Friday as the US Dollar weakens across the board, following a week that featured softer inflation data, which decreased the chances for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The XAU/USD trades at $4,386, still below the $4,400 threshold.

Societe Generale analysts note USD/KRW has corrected after losing its 200-day moving average near 1478 and is now testing an ascending trend line from 2023 around 1407.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH remains confined to a tight intraday range, with momentum indicators still flat and the pair expected to trade between 6.7400 and 6.7500.

Two cooling inflation readings carried the broad market to a record on Thursday, taking the S&P 500 through 7,800 for the first time, and Friday morning supplied the explanation for where the cooling came from.

NZD/USD gains 0.75% on Friday and trades around 0.5895 at the time of writing, with its rally losing some momentum as it approaches the psychological 0.5900 level.

Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke stresses that European natural gas remains structurally tighter than Oil as Qatar LNG is cut off and US cargoes are redirected to Asia.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the front foot on Friday but lacks strong follow-through and remains within the narrow range seen this week. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $65 after bouncing from an intraday low of $63.51.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD trading in the mid-1.15s with modest gains versus the US Dollar (USD), supported by euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a return to trade surplus.

EUR/GBP has traded in a tight range around the mid-0.8500s on Friday, little changed on the day. The latest Eurozone figures came in close to forecasts, and they did nothing to push the pair out of the range it has held all week.

MUFG analysts focus on several ASEAN indicators for regional currencies. They flag Singapore’s July non-oil domestic exports after June’s strong 20.7% year-on-year rise, and expect Malaysia’s CPI to stay contained at 1.9% year-on-year.

TD Securities’ Robert Both expects Canadian headline CPI to rise to 2.9% year-on-year in July, driven by higher gasoline and food prices, while ex. food/energy components stay muted.

ING’s Lynn Song expects Bank Indonesia to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75% this week, prioritizing Rupiah stability while avoiding an immediate hike. The report highlights BI’s growing reliance on non-rate tools such as SRBI yields and FX intervention.

The Pound Sterling rises by some 0.40% on Friday as a batch of US data justifies the Fed's dovish approach, with consumer sentiment deteriorating while the disinflation process improved. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3545 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3482.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret observe USD/JPY trading near 159, with modest Japanese Yen (JPY) gains offering reassurance to the Ministry of Finance (MoF) after recent weakness.

Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht observes that despite falling LME Copper stocks and trimmed output guidance from a major producer, the recent Copper rally is losing momentum.

Nordea strategists see the Norwegian Krone (NOK) broadly stable over the next six months after July’s EUR/NOK decline, driven by higher Oil prices and Norges Bank’s increased NOK purchases.

MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee note that upcoming US economic data will be crucial for the US Dollar outlook.